The Internationalist
The world’s next nations: a brief guide
After Scotland, here’s who’s voting on independence next
By Thanassis Cambanis
| Globe Correspondent
July 27, 2014
Surveying our violent and sometimes
weird world, it might seem that things change only for the worse.
Tensions between Moscow and Washington, with ripple effects across the
globe? Check. Iranian ayatollahs fulminating against the Satanic West?
Check. Israel and Palestine at war again? Check.
But one historically bloody rite of passage seems to have gotten a lot easier of late: the birth of a nation.
Typically, when part of a country has wanted to break away, it means
war. The American Revolution was a war of secession fought by colonists
against the British Empire. And the 20th century’s two great waves of
nation-building were cataclysmic: After the end of World War I in 1918,
peoples around the world broke away from empires and formed their own
states, emboldened by the idealism of American President Woodrow Wilson.
Tens of millions were killed and displaced in the process. After World
War II, dozens of Asian and African countries declared independence as
they expelled colonial occupiers, sometimes with acceptance, often with
bloodshed.
Lately, however, the world has seen some surprisingly smooth
independence movements in which the path to statehood has been achieved
through voting, not battle. The latest candidate for the new nations
club is another British territory: Scotland.
On Sept. 18,
Scots will vote whether to withdraw from their union with Britain. Like
their 18th-century counterparts in the American Colonies, if they
declare independence they will remove bountiful riches from London’s
control, in this case probably most of the North Sea oil fields. But in a
sign of changing times, the United Kingdom is only striking against the
secessionists with words. Prime Minister David Cameron has promised to
accept the referendum results.
A lot has to go right for an independence vote to take place, and to
be honored. A “parent” nation has to be confident enough—or scarred
enough by civil infighting—to let go willingly. A breakaway republic
needs the resources to survive and prosper on its own. And a stable
region helps: South Sudan, the world’s newest country (see sidebar), has
already fallen back into the violence that characterized its existence
as a persecuted region under the control of Khartoum.
Scotland’s coming vote might be getting all the attention, but there
are other countries with independence referendums in the offing. Some
are more likely to work out than others; if they do, the world could see
a handful of new flags, and also new challenges. Here’s a tour of the
new nations you just might be able to visit soon.
Scotland
If it votes for
independence on Sept. 18, Scotland will become the newest entrant to the
European Union. It’s already a popular tourist destination and an
economic powerhouse. If current political trends continue, an
independent Scotland will form a leftist, socialist counterpart to a
more right-wing England. The Scots have proven more committed to
national health care and labor rights than Britain under Conservative
rule. Edinburgh’s Fringe Festival has been an alternative cultural
mainstay for decades, and Glasgow served as Europe’s Cultural Capital in
1990.
Will it change much? Maybe Scotland will be forced to abandon the
pound sterling after three centuries, but an independent Scotland
probably won’t look that different. It’s unlikely to sever its
relationship to the United Kingdom entirely, like Ireland did. It
probably will maintain formal allegiance to the queen, like other former
British territories including Australia and Canada. And its economy
will remain intertwined with that of England, with whom it will continue
to share a common language and island.
Catalonia
The region of Spain that gave us Gaudi,
Barcelona, and George Orwell’s best work of reportage has often been an
economic basket case, but it’s undeniably beautiful region with an
undeniable sense of separate identity. People there proudly speak
Catalan, a Romance language as different from Spanish as Portuguese or
French, and many refuse to identify as Spanish. Separatist parties won
the Catalan regional elections in 2012 and promised to hold an
independence vote, now scheduled for Nov. 9.
It’s unclear whether Catalonia could prosper independently; Spain,
overall, isn’t doing so well itself. The region has its own
manufacturing and finance base, and it remains a popular tourist
destination. Unshackled from Spain, Catalonia would be likely to even
more boldly embrace its linguistic differences and the region’s more
populist politics. Visitors already in thrall to the delicious cuisine,
with its famous mixing of pork and seafood, and eclectic architecture,
will be able to bask in a romantic storyline of a persistent, stubborn,
and maybe even ill-conceived commitment to national independence.
If it votes “yes,” Catalonia’s path forward won’t be smooth: The
Spanish government says it won’t honor an independence referendum.
Barcelona, the would-be capital, will have to negotiate gingerly with
Madrid—which has promised to block the EU membership of not only
Catalonia, but also Scotland, for fear of setting a precedent. Catalan
leaders are already considering how to go around Spain and appeal for
recognition from foreign countries and the United Nations.
If they both dig
in, expect a long and strange standoff, but a diplomatic one: It’s
almost impossible to imagine contemporary Spain going to war to retain
control of its wealthy eastern region.
Western Sahara
This one has
been underway for longer than most college students have been alive. A
huge, mineral-rich territory almost as large as Morocco itself, Western
Sahara stretches south of Morocco along the Atlantic Coast. If it didn’t
have generous phosphate deposits to mine, it’s conceivable that its
half-million inhabitants would have been left alone when Spain ended its
colonial rule in 1975. Instead, Morocco moved in and fought a long war
with a local independence group called the Polisario Front. Since 1991,
the United Nations has monitored a cease-fire and was mandated to
organize an independence referendum to settle Western Sahara’s future.
Some
diplomats—perhaps a bit Pollyanna-ish—believe that the vote could
finally come to pass in two or three years, and their assumption is that
the independence faction would win. Western Sahara has beautiful
desertscapes and an undeveloped coastline; it is huge, 100,000 square
miles, and mostly uninhabited. It probably wouldn’t join Morocco as a
top tourist destination, but its mining industry and natural resources
could position it as a relatively wealthy neighbor to Morocco and
Algeria, if things go right—or could doom it to the “resource curse”
that often mires resource-rich countries in poverty and
underdevelopment.
New Caledonia
A
French-controlled island in the Pacific, New Caledonia gained renown
because of the brutal measures the French undertook to suppress the
locals in the 19th century, and later for its critical role as an Allied
naval base during World War II. Today it is one of the most prosperous
economies in the South Pacific, with healthy agriculture, tourism, and
mining sectors. French support has been generous, which might explain
why voters rejected independence during a referendum in the 1980s.
Secessionist
parties have grown in popularity since, however, and a second vote will
be held before 2018. If it succeeds, New Caledonia would join Djibouti,
Algeria, and the dozens of former French colonies sprinkled around the
globe. France has already said it won’t fight to keep New Caledonia, but
it’s not clear whether the island will really cut its ties: Many local
opponents of independence believe that when they get to the voting
booth, residents won’t want to let go of the French subsidies that would
disappear after independence.
Bougainville
A
tropical Pacific island currently ruled by Papua New Guinea,
Bougainville has a copper mine and about 250,000 inhabitants. Past
governments have hired foreign mercenaries to quash secessionist
rebellions, but now Bougainville is scheduled to vote on independence
between 2015 and 2020 and Papua New Guinea now seems resigned to let the
territory go if voters support independence.
Aside from miners, it’s unlikely to attract casual visitors. Like
Papua New Guinea, it’s hard to reach. Fun fact: It’s named after the
same French navigator as the ubiquitous warm-climate bougainvillea vine.
Iraqi Kurdistan
One
example of the slow-and-steady approach is Iraqi Kurdistan. Kurds have
ruled their own enclave, more or less free from Baghdad, since 1991.
They speak their own language, have their own regional government, and
have developed their own oil industry. Kurdistan is its own country for
all practical purposes; it even has its own border guards. But it has
avoided war and preserved its relations with neighboring Iran and Turkey
(which have their own restive Kurdish minorities) by stopping short of
declaring independence.
Now, with Iraq’s
central government distracted by its war against the jihadi Islamic
State, the president of the autonomous Kurdish Regional Government this
month ordered his parliament to set up an independence referendum. Until
recently, Kurdish politicians believed they could never secede without
some kind of buy-in from Iraq, Syria, Turkey, and Iran, all of which
oppose Kurdish independence. But the new turmoil in the region has these
governments distracted with more pressing issues, and they might be
willing to accept an independent Kurdistan if it means a genuinely
stable new neighbor.
If the
referendum were to pass, Kurdistan would be a landlocked mountainous
territory with stunning mountains and lakes and major oil and natural
gas reserves. Compared to its neighbors, Kurdistan has been prosperous
and politically coherent, controlled mostly by a few traditional clans
who have proven adept at developing the economy and coopting potential
challenges from Turkey and Iran by inviting them to invest heavily in
Kurdistan’s economic boom. A free Kurdistan would bring to a close a
curious irony: one of the Middle East’s most stable countries in recent
years has stayed that way by not being a country at all.
Thanassis Cambanis, a fellow at The Century Foundation, is the
author of “A Privilege to Die: Inside Hezbollah’s Legions and Their
Endless War Against Israel.” He is an Ideas columnist and blogs at
thanassiscambanis.com.
